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Gout Prevalence to Increase by More Than 70% by 2050
The increase will largely be driven by population growth and aging.
The number of people with gout will increase by more than 70% by the year 2050, according to an estimate from a forecasting model. The increase will largely be driven by population growth and aging.1
“Furthermore, despite advances in the treatment of gout, it is still underdiagnosed and undertreated, and is associated with an increased risk of mortality and comorbidities.2 Therefore, quantifying the burden and pattern of gout cases by age and sex, as well as making projections for the future, are necessary to efficiently target the current and future needs of the population,” the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) Collaborator Network, investigators of the study, wrote.1 “We aimed to report the global, regional, and national burden and trends associated with gout and the burden attributed to risk factors, in terms of prevalence and age-standardized rates, from 1990 to 2020, as well as projections up to 2050.”
The GBD Collaborator Network drew on population-based data from 35 countries and claims data from the USA and Taiwan to analyze gout prevalence and years of healthy life lost due to disability (YLDs) from 1990 to 2020. It used nested Bayesian meta-regression models to estimate prevalence and YLDs due to gout by age, sex, and location, to 2050 with a mixed-effects model.
The investigators found that 55.8 million people (95% CI, 44.4–69.8) people globally had gout, with an age-standardized prevalence of 659.3 (95% CI, 525.4–822.3) per 100 000, which was an increase of 22.5% (95% CI, 20.9–24.2) since 1990. Globally, in 2020, males had a 3.26-time (95% CI, 3.11-3.39) higher prevalence of gout than females, which increased with age.1
With the model, they estimated that the total number of prevalent cases of gout is estimated to reach 95.8 million (95% CI, 81.1–116) in 2050. The increase was largely driven by population, with only a very small contribution from the forecasted change in gout prevalence. They forecast age-standardized gout prevalence in 2050 to be 667 (95% CI, 531–830) per 100 000 population.1
Looking at global age-standardized YLD rate of gout, it was 20.5 (95% CI, e14·4–28·2) per 100 000 population in 2020. High BMI accounted for 34.3% (95% CI, 27.7–40.6) of YLDs and gout and kidney dysfunction accounted for 11.8% (95% CI, 9.3–14.2).1
“In conclusion, the burden of gout increased globally over the past 30 years and is forecast to continue increasing over the next three decades. It is important to note that all regions had an increase in rates of the age-standardized burden due to gout from 1990 to 2020, despite large regional variations. Our findings highlight the need to focus on the prevention and management of gout as the population ages, especially among males. Preventing the disease requires public policy interventions to control risk factors, in particular high BMI, and guide resource allocation to enable early diagnosis and access and adherence to treatment,” the GBD concluded.1
REFERENCES
GBD 2021 Gout Collaborators. Global, regional, and national burden of gout, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Lancet Rheumatol. 2024; 6(8): e507-e517
Rai, SK ∙ Choi, HK ∙ Choi, SHJ ∙ et al. Key barriers to gout care: a systematic review and thematic synthesis of qualitative studies. Rheumatology. 2018; 57:1282-1292
